While Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has struggled to maintain momentum after briefly surpassing $62,000 in August, one analyst remains bullish. Gert van Lagen, an independent technical analyst, believes BTC is on the cusp of a significant breakout that could propel it into six-figure territory.
Van Lagen, in a recent X post, points to the formation of a parabolic curve on the BTC chart, where the price has been rising steadily in a step-like pattern. He also highlights the development of a rare Cup-and-Handle (CnH) pattern on the weekly chart, which has been taking shape for almost three years, dating back to October 2021.
A successful CnH breakout is known for triggering parabolic surges because the pattern signifies a confirmed trend bottom followed by a period of sideways consolidation during its development. Research by Tom Bulkowski, a renowned trader and creator of Thepatternsite.com, indicates a very high success rate for CnH patterns, hovering around 95%.
The parabolic curve can be further analyzed by looking at its individual bases. Base 1 was formed at the market bottom in November 2022. A recovery from $15,460 to $25,290 confirmed Base 2. The period of sideways consolidation between $30,000 and $25,000 during April and September 2023 established Base 3.
Following this consolidation, Bitcoin witnessed its first parabolic rise of 198%, reaching a new all-time high of $73,737 in March 2024. Over the past few weeks, the BTC/USD chart has been printing Base 4, the final phase of the parabolic curve and the “handle” portion of the CnH pattern, both of which are nearing a potential breakout.
Van Lagen anticipates that a breach above Base 4 will trigger “the steepest kind of ascent BTC has ever witnessed,” potentially culminating in a blow-off-top rally. By the end of 2024, his price target sits at a staggering $260,000, representing a 312% gain from current prices.
Breaching the previous all-time high above $70,000 will not be without consequence for futures traders holding short positions. Data from Coinglass suggests a significant liquidation event is likely to occur once BTC surpasses $70,493. As of August 27th, shorts totaling $7.18 billion would be liquidated at this price point. Further liquidations for $6.54 billion are predicted at $72,581, highlighting the current market’s positioning with both bullish and bearish participants.
Interestingly, despite the recent price slump, the Long/Short ratio has swung towards bullish territory over the past 24 hours. Data indicates that 57.19% of accounts are currently long on BTC. However, the taker buy/sell volume between long and short positions remains closely matched, with the Longs/Short ratio holding steady at 1.01.
These optimistic forecasts resonate with similar predictions made by other analysts. A report by Cointelegraph cites Jame Coutts, an analyst at Real Vision, who anticipates Bitcoin entering “batshit season” or the “Banana zone” – a period of parabolic price and volume growth that fuels market frenzy and exponential price increases.
Furthermore, Bitcoin researcher Smithson With’s previously accurate predictions regarding past bull cycle peaks add another layer of intrigue. While With’s price targets for 2025 fluctuate, his minimum expected price for BTC sits at a compelling $164,173 by January 1st, 2025.
In conclusion, several analysts are converging on a similar vision for Bitcoin. A decisive breakout above the previous all-time high is expected to trigger a rapid upward trajectory, potentially sending Bitcoin soaring into six-figure territory by the end of the year.
