- Multiple analysts predict Bitcoin will test $104,000 support level before reversing
- The 50-week moving average at $102,500 has provided reliable support four times since mid-2023
- High leverage and liquidity clusters around $104,000 make this drop likely
- Institutional demand remains strong despite short-term correction
Bitcoin traders are preparing for one more potential drop before the bull market resumes.
Several market watchers now point to $104,000 as a critical test. This level aligns with technical indicators that have marked turning points throughout this cycle.
The 50-week simple moving average sits at $102,500. This metric has caught falling prices four times since the bull market began in mid-2023. Each time Bitcoin touched this support, it reversed direction and climbed higher.
Analyst Sykodelic noted on Thursday that significant leverage remains in the market. A large liquidity cluster exists around $104,000. “I know it’s not what any holder wants to hear, but very likely we take that out,” the analyst wrote.
Market Sentiment Points to Reversal
The pattern mirrors previous corrections this year.
In April 2025, Bitcoin fell to $74,000 when it hit the 50-week moving average. In August 2024, it crashed to $49,000 at the same indicator. Both drops came with negative sentiment. Both reversed sharply after hitting support.
“The market feels the worst right before it reverses,” Sykodelic added.
Another analyst, Negentropic, described the current movement as a repeat of September’s correction. “We are seeing a repeat of the final phases of correction in September. It seems like the profit taking this time around is less intensive.”
The current setup opens the door to $102,000. The market appears close to a larger reversal.
Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research, told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin may retrace to $104,000 as part of a healthy market correction. “However, the underlying fundamentals and institutional interest remain robust, setting the stage for a strong resumption of the bull market,” Ruck said.
Key Support Levels Hold
Analyst Daan Crypto Trades identified the 200-day exponential moving average as critical support during most of this cycle.
The daily 200-day moving average trend has held throughout the current bull run. Price experienced some volatility around this level during uncertain times. But the trend never broke for more than a month.
Bitcoin currently trades around $108,000. The price attempted to recover above key resistance levels but faced selling pressure. Immediate resistance sits near $108,800. The first key resistance is near $109,500.
If Bitcoin fails to rise above $109,500, another decline becomes likely. Immediate support is near $107,200. The first major support sits at $106,750. The next support level is near $105,800.
The final test may come soon. Once Bitcoin clears out the $104,000 zone, the path higher could open.
